Day 2 :
Keynote Forum
Tim Kaelin
Impact Analytics, USA
Keynote: The energy net – A two-phased approach using free enterprise solutions to solve climate change
Time : 09:15-09:45
Biography:
Tim Kaelin has been interested in psychology and mass influence since his days as an intelligence officer in the 1980’s and 90’s. Now as CEO of marketing and publishing companies he is able to pursue research in these areas and apply that research to real world problems. In fact, those are the only problems worth solving! Tim has Master’s degree in Electrical Engineering (1984) and International Business(1995) and is a serial entrepreneur. He lives in Deerfield Beach, Florida, and dotes on his great niece and nephew.
Abstract:
Statement of the Problem: Global Climate Change in recent times has been characterized as an excess of carbon dioxide which cause the “greenhouse effect” to change the Earth’s climate, with the potential to radically inhibit the ability of humans survive. The primary source has been identified as the burning of fossil fuels, e.g., oil, shale, natural gas. While a number of strategies have been proposed to attack this problem, none to this date have had the enthusiastic endorsement of the primary generators of carbon dioxide. It has become a political football. Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: It is proposed that the psychology in the past for solving global climate change has been misguided. The current “blame, punish and sacrifice” agenda, when examined through the lens of mass influence science, has no possibility of success, and was, in fact, stillborn. The most powerful (non-military) engine of change has always been free enterprise. We approach this using Jacque Ellul’s symbology theory of public opinion. Findings: A two-phased approach is proposed, first a “farmers market” consisting of 2500 square miles of currently unused land, is designed to push down the price of solar energy by about 80%. Second, the implementation of universal “net metering” in the U.S. solidifies and increases the market, and increases participation. This is a de facto deregulation of the energy industry. The paper examines the motivations of all stakeholders, domestic and foreign (including the current Administration) and proves an alignment that will displace fossil fuels and thereby solve global climate change in the fastest possible time.
Keynote Forum
Habibullo I Abdussamatov
St. Petersburg, Russia
Keynote: The sun controls the climate
Time : 09:45-10:15
Biography:
Abdussamatov Habibullo Ismailovich: born October 27, 1940 in Samarkand, Uzbek SSR, Soviet Union (now Uzbekistan). Education: Samarkand State University (1962), faculty of physics and mathematics; graduate courses in Leningrad State University (1965-1967), faculty of mathematics and mechanics; postgraduate course in Pulkovo Observatory (1966-1969). Works in Pulkovo Observatory since 1964: researcher trainee (1964-1966), postgraduate (1966-1969), junior researcher (1969-1982), senior researcher (1982-1999), leading researcher (1999-2004), head of the Space Research Sector (2004-2006), head of the Space Research laboratory (2006-2010). At the present time — head of the Space Research Sector of the Sun at Pulkovo Observatory (since 2010) and the head of the Lunar Optical Observatory project. He is an expert in the area of solar physics and of the solar-terrestrial physics as well as the climate. He is independent scientist on climate change issues. He is the author of some180 scientific publications, including four scientific monographs, and seven scientific inventions.
Abstract:
The climate system depends on an extremely complex set of physical processes taking place in the ocean-land-atmosphere system, which in turn is influenced by various, mainly the quasi-bicentennial variation of the total solar irradiance (TSI). Only variation of TSI to 0.5% leads to small increments of the planetary temperature and is the initial triggering mechanism of subsequent multiple feedback effects. The feedback effects leading to significant changes in the Bond albedo, content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and width of the window its transparency. The climatic influence of subsequent feedback effects depends on the duration of the period cooling (warming) and its influence can increase the direct influence of the quasi-bicentennial variation of TSI up to three times. Since ~1990, the Sun has been in the declining phase of the quasi-bicentennial variation TSI. Decrease in the portion of TSI absorbed by the Earth since 1990 has remained uncompensated by the Earth's longwave radiation at the previous high level due to oceans' thermal inertia. The Earth has and will continue to have, negative average annual energy budget and a negative thermal condition. The quasi-centennial epoch of the new Little Ice Age started after the maximum phase of solar cycle 24. The start of Solar Grand Minimum is anticipated in 2043±11. Beginning of a phase of a deep cooling of the new 19th Little Ice Age for the last 7,500 years is anticipated in 2060±11. The gradual weakening of the Gulf Stream, which is driven by the heat accumulated by oceans water in the tropics due to of cyclic variations of the TSI, leads to more strongest cooling in the zone of its action. The quasi-bicentennial cyclic variations of the TSI together with successive very important influences of secondary feedback effects controls of corresponding alternations of the climate.
Keynote Forum
Armen B Avagyan
Research & Industry Centre of Photosynthesizing Organis, Armenia
Keynote: Climate change, necessities of change in global environmental policy and microalgae application
Time : 10:15-10:45
Biography:
Doctoral degree of Moscow State university. He worked as Senior researcher Armenian Institute of Agriculture and Technological Institute of Amino Acids of USSR, director of Armenian Institute of Biotechnology, director of Yerevan Vitamin plant and deputy director of Nairit Chloroprene Rubber plant. Sole founder of Research & Industry Centre of Photosynthesizing Organisms, Feed Additives & Physiologically Active Compounds; Expert of EU Horizon 2020, ERA.NET and International Cooperation programs and Council of Chemistry and Petrochemistry of CIS countries. Academic Member of the Greece ATINER Academia, Member of American Chemical Society and Society of Chemical Industry (USA), Member of Editorial Boards of journals: “Journal of Chemical, Environmental and Biological Engineering" (USA), SM Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering" (USA) and Modern Management Forum (Singapore). Laureate of “The International Presidents Award for Iconic Achievement” and “Top 100 Professionals” (IBC, England), "The Albert Einstein Award for Excellence" (Top 50 Geniuses of World, ABI, USA), Marquis Who's Who “2017 Albert Nelson Marquis Lifetime Achievement Award” (USA), awards of the Armenia and former USSR
Abstract:
During action of the Kyoto Protocol the GHG emissions are growing of about 52 billion tons CO2 per year or up 58% from 1990. The UNEP fixed that even if all countries deliver on the Paris Climate Agreement, the world will warm by 3.0 to 3.2°C. The UN’s top Climate change officials, Addis Ababa Action Agenda and the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action declare as imperative action - multi-stakeholder partnerships and the attraction of the private sector investment for fast track development of Climate change mitigation. However, they did not offer effective and equitable policy component for Global market partnership based on the payments to the private companies for mitigation of Climate change impact. Such payments fund must be developed from the incomes of pollution taxes, etc. and will serve economical effective increasing of investments in the development of the Global Life Conserve Industry. This will allow also mitigate market penetration influence (as falling oil prices on today’s biofuel market). The technological approach must base also on the algae CCS technology. The microalgal production of 417,659 tones can absorb up to 0.764 MtCO2eq (in addition, reduction of NOx and VOCs) and produce 0.559 MtO2eq with a decreasing of Canadian producers carbon taxes up to US$ 764–1528 billion per year. This quantity of microalgae can used as feed additive (1%) and will meet the total demand of Canada on 213%, USA on 25%, or Europe on 20% per year. Microalgae-derived biofuel can reduce GHG emission for Canada on 71-106 MtCO2 per/year. The development of the microalgae Live Conserve Industry is principal step from non-efficient protection of the environment to its cultivation in a large scale with mitigation of GHG emission and waste as well as generating of O2 and value-added products by the use of opens an important shift towards a new design and building of a biological system
Keynote Forum
Manal M Zaki
Cairo University, Egypt
Keynote: A review of heat stroke and its complications in rabbit's productivity and performance
Time : 10:45-11:15
Biography:
Professor of Animal Hygiene & Management at the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Cairo University, Advisory and manager of Veterinary quality control and Diagnosis Laboratory in SPF project, Agricultural Research Center, Ministry of Agriculture, Egypt in the interval from September 2001 and so far as (2001- Currently). Technical adviser and executive director of the United Company covalent for livestock development.
Abstract:
Still there is a wide gap between meat demand and production in Egypt. Moreover, the cost of feed stuff is very high due to the land-locked situation which leads to an increase in the cost of livestock production. In this context; rabbits provide a new avenue for meat production and could play a major role in enhancing the supply of animal protein. In Egypt, rabbits breeding farms is expanding; this is mainly attributable to the rabbit’s high rate of reproduction, genetic selection potentials, rapid growth rate, early maturity, efficient feed utilization and high value of meat. However, the most obvious limitation to rabbit production in Egypt as an example for south Mediterranean region is hot waves during the summer time, especially during the last two decades. Another limitation is the susceptibility of this species to acclimate with environmental stress. Heat stress mainly occurs when animals are exposed to high ambient temperatures, high humidity, low wind speed, and high direct and indirect solar radiation. The thermo-neutral zone (TNZ) temperature n for rabbits is around 18–21 °C. Therefore, in south Mediterranean region, the high temperature or heat stress, hinder the success of rabbit farming, as it leads to a significant reduction in the daily weight gain, daily feed intake and feed efficiency. Similarly, the milk yield of does maximized at 15°C ambient temperature was reduced by 7.7 g milk / 1°C rise in the temperature. Within 25-28°C of ambient temperature, rabbits decrease their feed consumption and require more digestible energy. At 30°C, the average feed consumption was reported to be decreased by 30% and growth was affected as well. Furthermore, disturbances in feed intake, feed utilization, water metabolism, blood parameters, enzymatic reactions, and hormonal secretions. In addition, protein, energy and mineral imbalances had been also reported to be disrupted in heat-stressed rabbits. The possible way to improve rabbit's productivity is improving heat new breeds that genetically able to be acclimatized with heat stress. Nutritional requirement and/or hygienic conditions are also recommended as helpful solutions. From another perspective, the effects of heat stress on rabbit's immune response has been extensively discussed in the last two decades showing how the thymus weight decreased and circulating T lymphocyte counts were declined. Others studies, also reported that heat stress directly affects the immune system cells, decreasing the number of viable cells and the number of receptors on the immune cells surface reducing the proliferative capacity of lymphocyte and the neutrophil function. Also, inhibiting the differentiation of B lymphocytes into antibody-secreting cells as well as decreasing immunoglobulin and cytokines production and increasing in heat-shock proteins synthesis by lymphocytes. Finally, it could be concluded that rabbit may be grown in hot climates, but with low high anticipated low productive and reproductive performance. Therefore, we recommend that applying rabbit breeding programs as a suitable solution for producing suitable breeds to be grown in hot climates.
- Sessions : Climate Change | Global Warming | Green Energy|Recycling |Pollution |Biofuels and Bioenergy |Oil and Gas |Geosciences |Environmental Toxicology |Natural Gas Recovery |Oceanography and Marine Biology
Location: Tribeca-4
Chair
Rex J Fleming
Global Aerospace LLC, USA
Co-Chair
Tim Kaelin
Impact Analytics, USA
Session Introduction
Dave White
Climate Change Truth Inc, USA
Title: Discovery: Reduction in photosynthesis correlation to atmospheric CO2 increase
Time : 11:30-11:55
Biography:
Dave White graduated in Chemical Engineering in 1984. During the time at Oregon State University Dave worked on a cross flow counter current scrubber for coal fired power plants. Then he moved to Hillsboro with his wife and worked in Semiconductors. In 2006 Dave along with Dr. Tom Wallow produced a paper on ArF double patterning for semiconductors. This multi-pattering scheme is widely used in today’s semiconductor manufacturing plants. In 2011 Dave started a consulting business for Semiconductors. In 2017 Dave Started Climate Change Truth Research Inc. Dave is seeking the truth about climate change. His research interests are evaporation from the ocean, rain forest destruction effects and diffusion of CO2 through the atmosphere.
Abstract:
Since 1950 the Amazon Rain-forest has been deforested. An average of 12 million hectare per year. This deforestation causes a minimum of 30% of the biomass to be burned. The burning of the biomass is adding billion of tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. The carbon dioxide has overwhelmed the rain-forest and caused massive decay. The rain-forest has now become and oxygen sink and carbon dioxide producer. To solve these issues the deforestation and burning needs to stop. Then after 10 years the burning can continue 10% a year for 10 years. This will heal the amazon and bring down atmospheric carbon dioxide. After a few years the global carbon dioxide will start to decrease. After 10 years the rain-forest will be healed. However minus 860 million hectares. In addition if we plant trees and shrubs worldwide we will bring down the atmospheric carbon dioxide much faster.
Thomas Wysmuller
colderside.com, USA Panel Discussion
Title: The effects of ocean circulation on formation of the great ice ages
Time : 11:55-12:20
Biography:
Tom Wysmuller forecasted weather at Amsterdam’s Royal Dutch Weather Bureau after studying meteorology at NYU and Stanford. Selected for a future executive NASA internship, he worked throughout NASA and its Directorates before, during, and after the Moon Landings. He became administration director of the government operations at Pratt & Whitney and held insurance industry executive and board positions. The Polynomial Regression mathematics, algorithms, or code he personally produced after leaving NASA, is used by almost all climate scientists on the planet for analytical and modeling. He lectures worldwide on the SCIENCE/DATA needed to understand climate. In 2008, Tom was highlighted in the “50th Anniversary of NASA” issue of AIAA’s “Horizons” magazine. He was the meteorologist member of 2012’s NASA 49 and NASA 41; Scientists, Astronauts, Engineers, and NASA Field Center Directors requesting improvements in NASA’s handling of climate issues. He chaired “Water Day” in 2013 at UNESCO-IHE, the world’s leading water research graduate center, and went on to chair the Oceanographic Section of the massive 2016 World Congress on Oceans in Qingdao, China. His http://www. colderside.com/colderside/Temp_%26_CO2. html has gone viral.
Abstract:
Global Climate for the past One Million years has proven to be remarkably symmetrical, in both its temperature variation and temporal periodicity. Geological evidence for the periodicity became evident in the 19th century and certain in the mid-20th, when seabed cores were taken from all oceans in the world. Reconstruction of Oceanic Water Levels added to the evidence of this confirmed symmetry. In the 1950s, Oceanographer Maurice Ewing, heading Columbia University’s Lamont Earth Observatory, and Geologist William Donn, used seabed core evidence to aid in developing a theory of Ice ages and their causes [1,2,3]. Ocean circulation, particularly over the passages on either side of Bear Island, was critical. The framework they proposed underwent a number of revisions and was not well understood [4]. The brilliant Russian research conducted at the Vostok East Antarctica Ice Station helped clarify everything. Their Ice Core project was designed to penetrate into Lake Vostok. This huge lake was situated 3 kilometers under the ice and the 10-year effort yielded stunning results that included exposing Milankovitch signals within the symmetrical periodicity of temperature and CO2. A singular asymmetrical variation covering the most recent 10K years appears to disrupt the sequence, but there is a real likelihood that this pattern is not abnormal and a research proposal to resolve the discrepancy (and confirm the actual symmetry) will be offered. Magnetic effects, Piano Key evidence, & Earth surface vs. core rotational aspects along with Ocean Currents are inclusively addressed.
Quang Nguyen
University of Mississippi, USA
Title: Coastal hazard assessment for Miami and its surrounding areas in Florida
Time : 13:20-13:45
Biography:
Quang Nguyen obtained his Ph.D. degree in Engineering Science from the University of Mississippi in the United States. He earned his M.S. degree from Hiroshima University in Japan. He has 13 years of experience in both academia and industry in the field of environmental science and engineering, emphasis in climate change, coastal hazards, and coastal floods. He has worked for 13 projects funded by prestigious sources such as the U.S. Department of Transportation, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and MacArthur Foundation. He has published numerous papers in journals and international conferences.
Abstract:
Coastal areas are prone to many natural hazards such as extreme rainfall floods, sea level rise (SLR), and tsunami. Miami is known as the most vulnerable areas to weather related natural disaster in the United States due to its low elevation and being surrounded by ocean. The primary objective of this presentation is to present the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) floodplain modeling, Center for Advanced Infrastructure Technology (CAIT) SLR simulation, and CAIT tsunami simulation using high resolution laser-based digital elevation model data of the terrain and Landsat-8 imagery to evaluate the impact of extreme rainfall floods, SLR, and tsunami on Miami and its surrounding areas. The CAIT tsunami simulation methodology was motivated from the 9 m tsunami wave peak height (WPH) that hit the Kesennuma Bay in Japan on March 11, 2011. The key results of the HEC-RAS floodplain modeling indicate that 409.64 km2, or 56.76% of the land area is inundated by floodwater. The affected population due to an extreme rainfall flood is around 1.42 million. The results of the SLR simulation show that the submerged land due to 2 m SLR is 411.96 km2 (57.08 % of the land area). The affected population from a 2 m SLR is 1.43 million. Results of the tsunami simulation show that 703.05 km2, or 97.41 % of the land area is submerged by the 9 m tsunami WPH. The affected population from the 9 m tsunami WPH is 2.40 million. This study indicates that floods caused by rainfall or tsunami in a short period of time affect a larger inundation area than the submerged area caused by SLR simulation for year 2100 gradual seal level rise. A resilience management plan was also recommended to protect people, infrastructure from the coastal hazards.
Pankaj Choudhary
University of Delhi, India
Title: Concerns of fairness, justice and equity to climate change
Time : 13:45-14:10
Biography:
In the past he has been served as a President, P.G. Law Students’ Union, Faculty of Law, Delhi University (2013-14) and Legal Aid Society in the Faculty of Law, Delhi University: this was amongst various firsts that I enunciated as President. The Legal Aid society provides free legal services to the poor, the downtrodden and to the most backward sections of our society and Organized various seminars and workshops on current national and international issues that touched our nation’s interest and people’s sentiments in the Delhi University as a President under the banner “Youth Perspectives”. It provided immense opportunities to the young budding students to have an active interaction with national leaders, scholars, and leading intellectuals of the country. Attended and spoken at multiple international conferences on law, politics, science & technology, and Environment Laws . In November 2016 attended International yoga conference in Vietnam and in January , 2017 attended Lets do it environment conference in Tallinn , Estonia .
Abstract:
Concerns of fairness, Justice and equity are not new to climate change talks. Widespread consensus among scientific community that the earth's climate is rapidly changing mainly as a result of increases in greenhouse gases caused by human activities, has forced policy makers at national and International level to adopt Paris climate change agreement. Even after this agreement came into force on nov 4, 2016, concerns over jts fairness, equity and justice continue to remain a key point of discussion among policymakers of developing countries. India's environmental minister Anil Dave recently remarked in Marrakesh that equal focus should be given to pre-2020 actions by developed countries under Kyoto protocol. In fact, in recent legal literature equity, justice and fairness are considered major legal concept in application of law. This paper is a humble attempt to analyze legislative response to Paris climate change agreement and adoption of justice and fairness in its application It argues, among other things that subjectivity involved in the Concept of climate justice and equity can be removed by adequate elaboration of ethical norms specific to climate change. Adopting a more pluralist understanding of the laws governing climate change regime can also help us to achieve equity and justice in climate change negotiations.
Karina I Paredes Páliz
Departamento de MicrobiologÃa y ParasitologÃa, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Sevilla. Profesor GarcÃa González, 2, 41012-Sevilla, Spain.
Title: Use of bacterial consortia isolated from the rhizosphere of Spartina sp. to reduce the climate change impacts on salt marsh vegetation contaminated by heavy metals
Time : 14:10-14:35
Biography:
Karina Paredes Páliz is a young researcher from Ecuador who has taken her degree in Biology. She has a grant from the Ecuadorian Government and is currently doing her PhD in Molecular Biology and Biomedicine in the Department of Microbiology and Parasitology of the Faculty of Pharmacy (University of Seville). The area that focuses her research is Environmental Biotechnology, specifically the Bioremediation of heavy metals with the use of bacteria and plants. Several of her works focus in the Phytoremediation of estuaries contaminated near to the River Odiel, province of Huelva-Spain.
Abstract:
Ecosystems worldwide are experiencing the effects of climate change, and estuaries and salt marshes are no exceptions. Climate change can affect salt marshes in a number of ways. One of the greatest effects of climate change in salt marshes areas is the increase in the frequency of dry periods, where levels of accumulation of heavy metals reach critical values. Being highly productive, the plant community will be one of the most affected elements by these climatic shifts, both in terms of structure and dynamics, with undeniable effects on its productivity. Our aim was proposing a plant-bacteria association for phytoremediation of polluted salt marshes (Odiel, SW Spain), in order to reducing the effects of climate change associated with the accumulation of metals For this purpose, three autochthonous bacterial strains (gram negative Pantoea agglomerans RSO6 and RSO7, together with gram positive Bacillus aryabhattai RSO25), were previously selected on the basis of metal resistance and biosorption, plant growth promoting properties and the capacity to form biofilms. This work advances a step forward, by using them as inoculants for the halophyte Spartina densiflora. All three bacteria, particularly Pantoea strains, promoted plant growth on polluted sediments. Moreover, they mitigated metal stress, as revealed from physiological parameters, such as, functionality of the photosynthetic apparatus (PSII) and maintenance of nutrient balance. However, whereas gram negative strains did not significantly affect metal accumulation in plants, the gram positive bacterium enhanced metal accumulation in roots, without further loading to shoots. Our results confirm the possibility of modulating plant growth and metal accumulation in polluted sediments upon inoculation with selected bacteria, as well as the suitability of halophyte-rhizobacteria interactions as a biotechnological tool for metal phytostabilization of salt marshes, thus preventing the risk of metal transfer to the food chain.
Aminu Abdul Aziz
University for Development Studies, Ghana
Title: Proposal for the sensitization on galamsey operation in Noyem in the Birim North District in the Eastern region
Time : 14:35-15:00
Biography:
Abdul-Aziz Aminu completed University for Development Studies with Honors in Bachelor of Art Integrated Business Studies in 2013 and Diploma in Management Studies 2011 and Certificate in Tally Accounting Software in 2012 and a member of the Young African Leadership Initiative. Abdul-Aziz Aminu has his expertise in poverty reduction and environmental protection. He has both this model after years in experience in research, administration, accounts and insurance claims both in hospital and Construction Company. Abdul-Aziz Aminu is currently with Bless Nation Foundation as a part time work which aims in giving back to the society and also the founder of non-governmental organization by name Poverty reduction and environmental protection which operates with the permission of social welfare from the year 2015.
Abstract:
Noyem is a farming community located in the Birim North District of the Eastern region of Ghana. The community faces numerous developmental and environmental challenges which include poor drainage system, land degradation, water for domestic activities, and galamsey activities which is the most trivial developmental problem in the community. Galamsey activities have become a big threat to the lives of people in the community, due to the use of poisonous explosives for its activities, which leads to the emission of gaseous substances into the atmosphere, causing greenhouse effect and climatic change. Climatic change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from millions years. This change in weather condition is caused as a result of human activities, of which galamsey is not an exception. Noyem is faced with variations in solar radiation as a result of the indiscriminate way of extracting minerals stuffs in the community. Also natural resource unsustainability as a result of the galamsey activity occurs out of the indiscriminate digging into the land and pollution of water bodies which causes threats to the aquatic life. Also, the galamsey activities undermine the social life of the people in the community, in the sense that children under age are mostly engaged, whereby some lose their lives or their future become deteriorated. However, problems of the galamsey activity form important reason for Noyem's unsustainable natural resource and climatic change. This proposal therefore seeks to address issues concerning galamsey activities, and to come out with preventive mechanisms to curb the alarming situation. To reduce the negative impacts of galamsey activities in Noyem and to ensure natural resource sustainability and favorable climatic conditions The outcome of this proposal is to improve the state of the water bodies in the Noyem community. Also to enhance the re-filling of the lands in which the galamsey activities take place. Furthermore, to ensure the reduction of environmental degradation.
Abdullahi Y Abdi
Kenyatta University, Kenya
Title: Impacts of climate change on pastoral communities, their coping mechanism and government and partners interventions in Garissa county, Kenya
Time : 15:00-15:25
Biography:
Abdullahi Yussuf Abdi is master student of Kenyatta university pursuing Master of Environmental Studies (Climate Change and sustainability) with a good background in Data analysis and Environmental Impact Assessment and furthermore, an independent thinker whose is passionate in working with communities to better their lives. In addition, currently am working with the county Government of Garissa, Department of Special Programmes where I participate with other relevant sectors in drafting climate change bill for County. The main reason why I choose to study Climate field is because the nature of my duty and as well I come from a pastoral community where livestock is the main source of livelihoods and the result of the abrupt climate impact, many people lost their source of income and currently they are in poverty trap
Abstract:
Climate change is a long-term shift in weather conditions identified by changes in temperature, precipitation, winds, and other indicators. Changes in climate have significant impacts on the livestock production. Heat stress, droughts, and events has lead to reductions in pasture and water availability hence loss of livestock productivity Climate change increases the odds of worsening drought in Garissa County. There is no doubt that pastoral livelihoods are under severe threats from recurrent droughts in the ASALS in Kenya. Over the years, these pastoralists have developed mechanisms to cope with these droughts. Unfortunately, these strategies are no longer adequate as the droughts have increased in frequency and magnitude. This is in addition to other compounding political, economic and environmental threats that these pastoralists face. Other actors like the government and developmental partners have also developed and implemented interventions to help pastoralists adapt to these drought events and reduce their vulnerability. Some of these initiatives have been reactionary while some yielded unintended negative consequences that have exacerbated the vulnerability of these pastoralists. The purpose of this study is therefore to establish drought implications on livelihood and adaptation mechanisms; a case study of Garissa County. The research has three objectives. First is to identify the implications of drought on community livelihood in Garissa, secondly is to find out the role played by institutions involved in drought management, and lastly is to assess community beliefs, knowledge and attitudes to enhance adaptation mechanisms in Garissa. Selected methodologies will be used to collect data from the field which includes questionnaires and interviews. The collected data will be analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. The findings of this study will establish the determinats of poor drought preparedness and adaptation. Based on the findings of the study, policy recommendations will be made on to the key stakeholders of the drought sector so as to improve the adaptation mechanism
- Poster Sessions
Location: Tribeca-4
Chair
Manal M Zaki
Cairo University, Egypt
Session Introduction
Jae Heon Cho
Catholic Kwandong University, South Korea
Title: Water quality in Lake Soyang watershed affected by sediment runoff from a highland agricultural region
Time : CG-1
Biography:
Jae Heon Cho is Professor of Department of Biosystems and Convergence Engineering at the Catholic Kwandong University, South Korea. His main research area is water quality management and modeling. Representative published articles are: Watershed model calibration framework developed using an influence coefficient algorithm and a genetic algorithm and analysis of pollutant discharge characteristics and load reduction in a TMDL planning area (Journal of Environmental Management 2015, 163, 2-10), A river water quality management model for optimising regional wastewater treatment cost using a genetic algorithm (Journal of Environmental Management, 2004, 73, 229–242).
Abstract:
In the wet season, a large amount of suspended sediments (SS) are discharged into Lake Soyang because of sediment erosion from highland fields. Important multiregional water sources are located in the lower Han River and the suspended sediments of the Lake Soyang affect the the water quality of the water supply. This rainfall-runoff survey was conducted three times at each of the survey points. In the case of the Jaun area of Hongcheon-gun, the Jungjohangcheon, and Johangcheon, the upper part of the Jaun area is identified as a dense area of highland fields. The rainfall-runoff characteristics and the first flushing in the Jaun area were analyzed using the pollutographs and the mass-volume curve. From the Ministry of Environment’s water quality measuring network, the changes on SS, BOD and TN concentration in the Soyang River watershed were analyzed with the yearly rainfall depth. Between 2012 and 2015, due to a low amount of rainfall, the three point’s SS and TP concentration was low. It appears that the reason for the low TP concentration was due to a light precipitation during the year, resulting in low amount of nutrient runoff from the highland fields. Otherwise, the BOD (the index of the organic material) concentration was high because of the reduction of the stream flow on 2012, 2014 and 2015 when the rainfall depth was small. SS, BOD and TP from Soyang River, Naerincheon, Inbukcheon appears to be influenced by rainfall depth.
Inyoung Park
Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, South Korea
Title: Long term temperature prediction model based on a long short-term memory neural network in missing data condition
Time : CG-2
Biography:
Inyoung Park is a Ph.D. student in School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, South Korea. She received a B.S. degree in Computer Application from the Bangalore University in 2015. Her current research focuses on speech signal processing and climate change modeling based on deep neural networks.
Abstract:
Nowadays, global warming not only intimidates humankind but also threatens the ecosystem due to its unpredictability. The ecosystem has warned about its vulnerability, and the need for long-term climate prediction has become indispensable. To build a long-term prediction model, a huge number of training data need without any flawlessness. However, there is a limitation of climate data that once it passed, we could not measure. Thus, the data are apt to be defective. This paper proposes a new long-term temperature prediction model based on a deep neural network, where some defective weather data obtained from a location are calibrated by using those from other locations. Since temperature is seasonal, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network which is a kind of recurrent neural network (RNN) known as suitable for a very long period of data. In order to predict weather data in advance up to 2 weeks, the proposed model is trained using actual weather data that are collected in an hourly basis for 36 years (from 1981 to 2016) of 11 different locations of South Korea, including hourly-based measurements for temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, precipitation, and accumulated prediction. In particular, when some data are missing, they are filled with those estimated from the refining model. After that, the model is trained again using the refined data. The performance of the proposed LSTM-based model is measured in terms of the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) between actual temperatures and their predicted ones. Consequently, it is achieved that the RMSE averaged over 11 locations is about 2.29 degrees for 2 weeks prediction. Although the proposed model is applied to refining weather data here, this approach can also be applied to other weather data. Furthermore, the proposed model can be extended to an air pollution prediction model against global warming.
Patricks-E Chinemerem
Environment Education & Development, Nigeria
Title: A projection of future climate refugee growth rate in South eastern Nigeria
Time : CG-3
Biography:
Dr. Patricks-E, Chinemerem is a member of IFTDO Developing Countries Committee & Visiting Lecturer. He is from University of Port Harcourt , Nigeria. He has done his PhD, M.Phil, B.Sc., EnvDipNEBOSH, iCert-Int’l Env. Law, MITD, MNES, MNMGS.
Abstract:
The aim and objective of this paper is to identify the vulnerability of the people residing within mapped communities to be exposed to civil conflicts and forced migration that will be wholly attributed to climate change. A case study approach was adopted to engage people from selected rural communities to share their experiences to civil conflicts and exposure to migration. Two states Enugu and Ebonyi were selected for this study and in each state, three communities were assessed and interacted with. A qualitative methodology adopting focu group interview and participatory approach was utilized to gather facts and data. Major findings indicated that the people residing across selected communities are exposed to growing frequencies of civil conflicts and possibility of forced migration and taking refuge in IDP camps or neighboring towns. The struggle for scarce arable and green grazing land, competition for scarce water resources and food security concerns will increase future civil conflicts and induce high growth rate of climate refugees following current changes in the climate system and its consequences on vulnerable poor communities in South Eastern Nigeria’s Enugu state and Ebonyi state.