Abrham Belay Mekonnen
Institute for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Nairobi, P.O Box 30197-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
Title: Analysis of Climate Variability and Trends in Southern Ethiopia
Biography
Biography: Abrham Belay Mekonnen
Abstract
This study investigated seasonal and annual trends and variability of rainfall and temperature in southern Ethiopia using time series station data for the period 1983-2016. Standard Anomaly Index (SAI), Coefficient of Variation (CV), Precipitations Concentration Index (PCI), and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were employed to evaluate rainfall variability and produce drought indices. Temporal changes of rainfall trends over the observed period were detected using Mann Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results showed that the region experienced considerable rainfall variability and change that caused extended drought and flooding events over the observed period. SAI and SPI results indicated an average inter-annual rainfall variability with the proportions of years with below and with above rainfall distribution estimated at 55.90% and 44.10% respectively. The Mann Kendall trend analysis result indicated an increasing trend of rainfall for annual, Kiremt (summer) and Bega (dry) seasons whereas the Belg (spring) season rainfall significantly declined at (P<0.05) significant level. The rate of change for annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature in the study area was 0.0420C, 0.0270C, and 0.0560C respectively. The findings of this study could serve as an entry point for decision-makers to take possible interventions in response to rainfall and temperature variations that improves adaptation and mitigation measures at different levels.